At the gates of history?

Planet Rugby - Saturday, March 21, 2009 7:29 PM

THANK goodness! A ropey Six Nations at least gets a head-to-head finale between the two teams who have proven to be a cut above the rest nearly the entire tournament.

As with 2005, Wales meet Ireland in a Cardiff finale, but this time it's the men in green with the momentum.

Ireland are poised for a first grand Slam since 1948 (in case you've been in a cocoon for the last few days), a Grand Slam which would belatedly confirm the current squad as the most talented for generations.

They came up one short three times, in 2005, 2006 and 2007, then came the World Cup and the loss of momentum.

It's a poor run of form in the big games, and the lack of confidence in the bookies is chronic.

Some 85 per cent of the money taken has gone on Wales - even Paddy Power have the Welsh as favourites!

Some of the personnel have changed since 2007 - including the coach - but the key men: Brian O'Driscol, Paul O'Connell, Ronan O'Gara are the standouts, are still there and ready to finally claim their prize.

Certainly the class of 1948 thinks so. "It would be a nice thought to have the trophy back in Ireland," said 1948 captain Karl Mullen this week, while Kyle, who ranks above Ronan O'Gara in the 1948 survivors' eyes, was a bit more analytical - as befits a fly-half.

"I think there's a good chance. This is a team now which is used to winning and that's always a great asset," he said.

"Not only can they win, but they've been able to come from behind and win which shows a lot of strength and tenacity."

That is the view of pretty much everyone. Mullen coined the phrase 'boot, bollock and bite' to describe what he wanted his side to bring to a game and they are qualities possessed in spades by the current team.

Leaving aside which of the side has the most of the middle item, Ireland certainly have the boot. Ronan O'Gara is now the highest points-scorer in the tournament's history and he has not exactly filled the history books with stories of his tries. And bite... have you ever known an Irish team without it?

As with Wales last year, they've gone about their business with unflappable efficiency, calm and precision. Even under pressure, the forwards grind out the penalties, O'Gara strokes them over, eventually they grab a try or two, the other side is prevented from breaking through. After the game, they remain gracious for as long as necessary, then disappear into the night to work on the next game.

In a curious parallel, it was others trying to disturb the Welsh psyche last year; this year it appears to have been the Welsh who have resorted to media games as the big day draws nearer.

Warren Gatland's ploy of trying to rile his opponents by declaring: "we don't like you very much" was the latest installment of what's been a tricky period for Gatland.

Faced with his first competitive defeat since he took over, Gatland made a serious error of judgement by taking a second-string side to Italy, which has left his side chasing a 13-point margin of victory on Saturday if they are to retain their title as well as ruining the Grand Slam.

It heaps more pressure on the players, whose performance is coming under closer scrutiny as the tournament wears on.

Wales have looked more restrained this year, better-shaped at times but all the more predictable for it.

Jamie Roberts and Andy Powell have been exposed as one-trick ponies at times, with neither offering much beyond destructive running. The rucking generally is sometimes looser as the new laws have taken a hold.

But there is confidence there. Another class of the past, Wales' class of 1983 - no Grand Slam winners but the last Welsh side to beat Ireland by the requisite margin and the last time before 2005 that Wales had even beaten Ireland at home - contained the current WRU Chairman David Pickering, who reckons Wales will win the game by upping the pace.

It's possible. Nobody has managed a sustained fast-paced assault on Ireland this year, but the continued Irish failure to come close to the All Blacks suggests that a fast-paced game is the way to beat them.

The failure of most others to come close to Ireland also suggests that unless you play to the All Blacks' level, you are going to get suckered into a Munster-type match, where only one team will prevail.

So there it is. Wales, needing to up the pace, against Ireland, who wrestle for control and then thrive on it. A healthy match-up of styles for an exciting and tense game.

Ones to watch:

For Wales: Wales need inspiration at the moment. Gavin Henson is the man to provide it if anyone, but he's not had much chance this season. This time? When it really counts? An awful lot rests upon it.

For Ireland: Jamie Heaslip has stormed into many Lions XVs over the globe during the past two months. His running from the base of the scrum gives Ireland such a handsome front foot off which to play.

Head-to-head: There are match-ups everywhere! Rob Kearney v Lee Byrne is probably a head-to-head playoff for a Lions Test team spot, Tom Shanklin v Brian O'Driscoll is the same, Ronan O'Gara v Stephen Jones is a fascinating match of experience fly-halves, and there's a real battle in the engine-room between one of the favourites for the Lions captaincy, Paul O'Connell, and a man who could well captain the Lions in the future as well as being O'Connell's team-mate in the second row in June, Alun-Wyn Jones.

Recent results:

2000 Wales won 23-19 in Dublin
2001 Ireland won 36-6 in Cardiff
2002 Ireland won 54-10 in Dublin
2003 Ireland won 25-24 in Cardiff
2004 Ireland won 36-15 in Dublin
2005 Wales won 32-20 in Cardiff
2006 Ireland won 31-5 in Dublin
2007 Ireland won 19-9 in Cardiff
2008 Wales won 16-12 in Dublin

Prediction: Last year we might have had this the other way round, but there is a new order.

Ireland have just that little bit too much control and shape for the Welsh.

Saturday will be another Grand Slam day in Cardiff but it will be the visitors celebrating. Ireland by four.

As an aside, the bookies reckon that 85 per cent of the money taken has gone on Wales - even the Irish bookies make Wales favourites.

The teams:

WALES: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Mark Jones, 13 Tom Shanklin, 12 Gavin Henson, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Andy Powell, 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Ryan Jones (capt), 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 4 Ian Gough, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 John Yapp, 18 Luke Charteris, 19 Dafydd Jones, 20 Warren Fury, 21 James Hook, 22 Jamie Roberts.

IRELAND: 15 Robert Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Luke Fitzgerald, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Tomas O'Leary, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Marcus Horan.
Replacements: 16 Rory Best, 17 Tom Court, 18 Mick O'Driscoll, 19 Denis Leamy, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Paddy Wallace, 22 Geordan Murphy.

Date: Saturday, March 21 Sunday Fiji Time)
Kick-off: 17:30 GMT, (4.30am FT)
Venue: Millennium Stadium
Weather: Bright and sunny, 12°C
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Touch judges: David Pearson (England), Stuart Terheege (England)
Television match official: Romain Poite (France)